Saturday, October 18, 2008
Will Obama Lose Because of the "Bradley Effect"
100,000 people of all races and hues showed up to see (soon to be POTUS) Obama in St. Louis this weekend…But, will they all actually VOTE for him?
With just over two weeks until the election, some are beginning to fret over the “Bradley Effect.” The Bradley Effect is a theory which describes when White voters tells pollsters that they will vote for a Black candidate—to appear liberal, progressive, and non-racist—but really, they are going to vote White.
Obama is five to six points ahead in the polls, however it is unknown how many of those “points” reflect the reports of, well, liars.
In 1982, Tom Bradley (for whom the theory is named) was thought to be a run-away favorite, but on election day he lost to his trailing White, Republican opponent George Deukmejian. In 1989, Douglas Wilder went in with a nine-point lead, but scraped a win by less than one percentage point. David Dinkins secured a helluva big 18-point lead in 1989’s mayoral race, but just narrowly won over Rudy Giuliani.
Obama supporters cannot be complacent at this important time. The election isn’t won. Obama could fall victim to another cheat in Florida…or in Ohio…or, still yet, the Bradley Effect. VOTE, VOTE, VOTE!!!
(Images: Tom Bradley [Time]; St. Louis [NYT])